In the first three quarters of the year, the overall domestic macro-economy was performing well. Not only did it achieve the goal of a soft landing of the economy, but under the overall implementation environment of maintaining stable monetary policies and structural adjustments, GDP growth rebounded slightly. The data shows that in August 2017, the added value of the above-scale industries increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and from January to August, the added value of the above-scale industries increased by 6.7% year-on-year. On the whole, the growth rate of production in high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries has continued to decline, but high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth rates, and related investments have also accelerated into emerging industries. The growth rate of Shuangchuang's investment continues to increase. With the industrial transformation and upgrading, China's economy has accelerated the conversion of old and new kinetic energy.

In the chemical industry, due to the comprehensive implementation of environmental protection inspection policies and the comprehensive clearing of backward production capacity, the boom of some industries has been able to rebound, coupled with the obvious increase in demand in emerging fields, especially in the first half of the coal and steel industries The rate and value center have been continuously revised, and corporate profitability has been continuously improved. In the first half of the year, the bull market created by black-based products represented a collective turnaround in the industry. In order to win a good situation, coupled with the destocking cycle support, the company's operating status was able to Overall improvement.

However, entering the traditional peak season of the gold, silver and silver chemical industry, the market trend was unsatisfactory. As there was no obvious bright spot in the growth of domestic demand, and the environmental protection policy storm was flattened, the operating rate of some industries gradually rebounded or even stayed at the highest level in the past years, but the actual consumption did not show a significant There are signs of growth, so black products bear the brunt of the sharp dive, but the industry operating rate is still high, and it is likely to enter the destocking cycle again in the future. Therefore, the overheating of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, and it is not conducive to the clearing of backward production capacity, and it is likely that the results of the supply-side structural adjustment stage will fall short of results. Therefore, the chemical industry as a whole is in the "cooling down" phase in the second half of the year, and the false high bubbles generated by various "conceptualized" speculations will be digested by the market itself.

From the perspective of the external environment, the U.S. contraction forecast is expected to continue to increase, but the actual economic recovery momentum is still weak, and the risk of shocks to emerging economies remains. Europe and other major foreign trade areas face exits from the monetary easing cycle, coupled with protectionist barriers. The global spread will continue to put pressure on the domestic export situation, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to decline.

It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth rate will continue to run at the bottom of the L-shape, and the emerging fields are not enough to support effective demand to occupy a major proportion. The imbalance in the traditional field structure is difficult to effectively reverse in the short term. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial value-added data and it is likely that there will be a weak situation. In the absence of new kinetic energy and bright spots of consumption growth, the investment growth rate of the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue negative growth. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the chemical product market will focus on the bottom and seek support from the bottom. It is likely to continue to be led by the black system. Moreover, it is expected that the overall destocking cycle will be relatively long, the enterprise benefits in the industry are expected to decline periodically, and the price bubbles and falsely high profit margins in some industries will return rationally and be effectively compressed.